The national survey by Mainstreet Research was conducted
just over a week into the federal election campaign and suggests the
ailing economy will become a defining issue of the race.
The poll of 5,401 Canadians on Aug. 10-11 asked: “Do you
think the economy is entering a recession or not?”
It found that 61 per cent people believed the country is
heading into a recession — compared to just 17 per cent who disagreed and 21
per cent who weren’t sure.
On a personal level, the survey found a significant level of
anxiety among Canadians about their own financial well-being in recent months.
People were asked: “Would you say you feel more financially
secure, less secure, or about as secure as you felt a year ago?”
Forty-four per cent said they are less financially secure,
compared to 33 per cent who said nothing had changed; 14 per cent who said they
were more secure; and eight per cent who weren’t sure.
Mainstreet Research President Quito Maggi said in an
interview that the poll provides a notable signal for the campaign. “The
ballot box question could very well be: Who is best to manage us through this
next recession?”
The Canadian economy shrank for each of the first five
months of this year. On Sept. 1, Statistics Canada will release more data
for June’s economic output. It’s widely expected the figures will show the
trend continuing and that, with two quarters of negative growth, Canada is now
officially in a recession.
The party leaders have all tried to turn economic
uncertainty to their own political advantage.
Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is seeking a fourth
mandate based partly on the claim that he will be a better economic manager
than his political rivals because his status-quo policies reject tax hikes and
“reckless” spending.
In Regina Thursday, he said that despite falling oil
prices, the debt crisis in Europe, and instability in Chinese markets, Canada
is doing a good job on things it can control: eliminating the deficit,
promoting international trade and investing in training.
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau say
the weak economy is proof that they should be trusted with power to help the
jobless and improve conditions for middle-class families.
In Saskatoon Thursday, Trudeau said Harper has the
worst economic growth record of any prime minister since R.B. Bennett “in the
depths of the Great Depression.”
Maggi said that while voters tend to blame sitting
governments when the economy goes sour, Harper has managed to “deflect the
blame so far” and maintain support from his base by drawing attention to
international economic problems.
“Politically, it’s a smart thing that he is doing.
“I think it can go a number of ways. I think when people are
pessimistic they can say, ‘Let’s stay the course, let’s not change horses amid
stream, let’s play the safe bet.’ ”
He said there’s also a risk the Conservatives’ claims of a
balanced budget could be exposed to be false – thereby damaging their
credibility.
For its poll, Mainstream surveyed landlines and cellphones
to obtain a random sample by interactive voice response (IVR). The margin of
error is 1.35 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
